Cacereño 4–1 Arroyo: Result & Stats

Cacereño

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Arroyo

1/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 21Estadio Príncipe Felipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cacereño64%

×Draw22%

Arroyo15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CacereñoExpected goals in this matchArroyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.76

Cacereño

1.88

Arroyo

0.76

Cacereño creates 147% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 90 away

2.38

creates per match

0.89

0.62

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Cacereño

2.38

Arroyo

0.89

allows per match

Cacereño

0.62

Arroyo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cacereño+0.00on par

Arroyo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cacereño ↓

Arroyo →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cacereño or draw

85%

Cacereño or Arroyo

78%

Draw or Arroyo

36%

Winning margin

Cacereño wins by 2+

38%

Arroyo wins by 2+

Team goals

Cacereño 1+ goals

85%

Cacereño 2+ goals

56%

Cacereño 3+ goals

29%

Arroyo 1+ goals

53%

Arroyo 2+ goals

18%

Arroyo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cacereño (draw refunded)

81%

Arroyo (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cacereño at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Arroyo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cacereño attack 2.38 + Arroyo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.88

Arroyo attack 0.89 + Cacereño defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Cacereño scores more

64%

level

22%

Arroyo scores more

15%

Cacereño at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cacereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff