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Caçador vs Nação — Catarinense - 2 2026

Caçador
Caçador
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nação
Nação
V. Tavares 80'
Medina 69'
Zemarcio 61'
7/8/2023Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 7Estádio Salézio Kindermann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Caçador28%
×Draw29%
Nação43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caçador
0.95
Nação
1.23

Nação creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 25 away

creates per match

Caçador
0.50
Nação
1.20

allows per match

Caçador
1.25
Nação
1.40

finishing

Caçador+0.00on par
Nação+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caçador ↓

Nação →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Caçador or draw
57%
Caçador or Nação
71%
Draw or Nação
72%

Winning margin

Caçador wins by 2+
10%
Nação wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Caçador 1+ goals
61%
Caçador 2+ goals
25%
Caçador 3+ goals
7%
Nação 1+ goals
71%
Nação 2+ goals
35%
Nação 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Caçador (draw refunded)
40%
Nação (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caçador at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Nação away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caçador attack 0.50 + Nação defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.95

Nação attack 1.20 + Caçador defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Caçador scores more
28%
level
29%
Nação scores more
43%

Nação at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nação will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
Zemarcio
69'
Medina
80'
V. Tavares

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense - 2: Caçador 1–2 Nação

Nação beat Caçador 2-1 in Catarinense - 2 on July 8, 2023.

Goals: Zemarcio (61'), Medina (69'), V. Tavares (80').

The match was played at Estádio Salézio Kindermann in Caçador, Santa Catarina.