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Caçador vs Juventus SC — Catarinense - 2 2026

Caçador
Caçador
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Juventus SC
Juventus SC
Julio Cesar 62'
Rian 7'
6/18/2023Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 4Estádio Salézio Kindermann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Caçador28%
×Draw32%
Juventus SC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caçador
0.81
Juventus SC
1.04

Juventus SC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 24 away

creates per match

Caçador
0.50
Juventus SC
0.83

allows per match

Caçador
1.25
Juventus SC
1.13

finishing

Caçador+0.00on par
Juventus SC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caçador ↓

Juventus SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Caçador or draw
60%
Caçador or Juventus SC
68%
Draw or Juventus SC
72%

Winning margin

Caçador wins by 2+
9%
Juventus SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Caçador 1+ goals
56%
Caçador 2+ goals
19%
Caçador 3+ goals
5%
Juventus SC 1+ goals
65%
Juventus SC 2+ goals
28%
Juventus SC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Caçador (draw refunded)
41%
Juventus SC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caçador at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Juventus SC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caçador attack 0.50 + Juventus SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.81

Juventus SC attack 0.83 + Caçador defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Caçador scores more
28%
level
32%
Juventus SC scores more
40%

Juventus SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Juventus SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Rian
62'
Julio Cesar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Catarinense - 2: Caçador 0–2 Juventus SC

Juventus SC beat Caçador 2-0 in Catarinense - 2 on June 18, 2023.

Goals: Rian (7'), Julio Cesar (62').

The match was played at Estádio Salézio Kindermann in Caçador, Santa Catarina.