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Caboolture vs Southside Eagles — Queensland Premier League 2026

Caboolture
Caboolture
FT
1 – 2
Southside Eagles
Southside Eagles
8/26/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 22Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Caboolture46%
×Draw21%
Southside Eagles33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caboolture
2.09
Southside Eagles
1.74

Caboolture creates 20% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 53 away

creates per match

Caboolture
1.98
Southside Eagles
1.26

allows per match

Caboolture
2.22
Southside Eagles
2.21

finishing

Caboolture+0.00on par
Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caboolture ↓

Southside Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Caboolture or draw
67%
Caboolture or Southside Eagles
79%
Draw or Southside Eagles
54%

Winning margin

Caboolture wins by 2+
26%
Southside Eagles wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Caboolture 1+ goals
88%
Caboolture 2+ goals
62%
Caboolture 3+ goals
34%
Southside Eagles 1+ goals
82%
Southside Eagles 2+ goals
52%
Southside Eagles 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Caboolture (draw refunded)
59%
Southside Eagles (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caboolture at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.22 · 54 matches

Southside Eagles away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caboolture attack 1.98 + Southside Eagles defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.09

Southside Eagles attack 1.26 + Caboolture defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Caboolture scores more
46%
level
21%
Southside Eagles scores more
33%

Caboolture at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Caboolture will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caboolture vs Southside Eagles

Southside Eagles beat Caboolture 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1 in Burpengary.