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Caboolture vs Magpies Crusaders — Queensland Premier League 2021

Caboolture
Caboolture
FT
5 – 5
Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
8/13/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 21Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Caboolture43%
×Draw19%
Magpies Crusaders38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caboolture
2.49
Magpies Crusaders
2.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 10 away

creates per match

Caboolture
1.98
Magpies Crusaders
2.50

allows per match

Caboolture
2.22
Magpies Crusaders
3.00

finishing

Caboolture+0.00on par
Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caboolture ↓

Magpies Crusaders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Caboolture or draw
62%
Caboolture or Magpies Crusaders
81%
Draw or Magpies Crusaders
57%

Winning margin

Caboolture wins by 2+
25%
Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Caboolture 1+ goals
92%
Caboolture 2+ goals
71%
Caboolture 3+ goals
45%
Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
90%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
68%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Caboolture (draw refunded)
53%
Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caboolture at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.22 · 54 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caboolture attack 1.98 + Magpies Crusaders defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.49

Magpies Crusaders attack 2.50 + Caboolture defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Caboolture scores more
43%
level
19%
Magpies Crusaders scores more
38%

Caboolture at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Caboolture will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caboolture vs Magpies Crusaders

Caboolture and Magpies Crusaders drew 5-5 in Queensland Premier League on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1 in Burpengary.