Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Caboolture vs Logan Lightning — Queensland Premier League 2026

Caboolture
Caboolture
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
6/7/2025Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 13Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Caboolture40%
×Draw21%
Logan Lightning39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caboolture
2.04
Logan Lightning
2.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 44 away

creates per match

Caboolture
1.98
Logan Lightning
1.84

allows per match

Caboolture
2.22
Logan Lightning
2.09

finishing

Caboolture+0.00on par
Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caboolture ↓

Logan Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Caboolture or draw
61%
Caboolture or Logan Lightning
79%
Draw or Logan Lightning
60%

Winning margin

Caboolture wins by 2+
22%
Logan Lightning wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Caboolture 1+ goals
87%
Caboolture 2+ goals
60%
Caboolture 3+ goals
33%
Logan Lightning 1+ goals
87%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
60%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Caboolture (draw refunded)
50%
Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caboolture at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.22 · 54 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caboolture attack 1.98 + Logan Lightning defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.04

Logan Lightning attack 1.84 + Caboolture defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Caboolture scores more
40%
level
21%
Logan Lightning scores more
39%

Caboolture at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Caboolture will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caboolture vs Logan Lightning

Caboolture beat Logan Lightning 7-0 in Queensland Premier League on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1 in Burpengary.