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Caboolture vs Ipswich Knights — Queensland Premier League 2026

Caboolture
Caboolture
FT
3 – 2
Ipswich Knights
Ipswich Knights
7/30/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 19Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Caboolture44%
×Draw20%
Ipswich Knights36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caboolture
2.29
Ipswich Knights
2.08

Caboolture creates 10% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 20 away

creates per match

Caboolture
1.98
Ipswich Knights
1.95

allows per match

Caboolture
2.22
Ipswich Knights
2.60

finishing

Caboolture+0.00on par
Ipswich Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caboolture ↓

Ipswich Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Caboolture or draw
64%
Caboolture or Ipswich Knights
80%
Draw or Ipswich Knights
56%

Winning margin

Caboolture wins by 2+
25%
Ipswich Knights wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Caboolture 1+ goals
90%
Caboolture 2+ goals
66%
Caboolture 3+ goals
40%
Ipswich Knights 1+ goals
87%
Ipswich Knights 2+ goals
61%
Ipswich Knights 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Caboolture (draw refunded)
55%
Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caboolture at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.22 · 54 matches

Ipswich Knights away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caboolture attack 1.98 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.29

Ipswich Knights attack 1.95 + Caboolture defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Caboolture scores more
44%
level
20%
Ipswich Knights scores more
36%

Caboolture at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Caboolture will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Caboolture 3–2 Ipswich Knights

Caboolture beat Ipswich Knights 3-2 in Queensland Premier League on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1 in Burpengary.