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Caboolture vs Broadbeach United — Queensland Premier League 2026

Caboolture
Caboolture
FT
1 – 4
Broadbeach United
Broadbeach United
3/17/2024Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 4Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Caboolture30%
×Draw20%
Broadbeach United50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caboolture
1.74
Broadbeach United
2.30

Broadbeach United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 32 away

creates per match

Caboolture
1.98
Broadbeach United
2.38

allows per match

Caboolture
2.22
Broadbeach United
1.50

finishing

Caboolture+0.00on par
Broadbeach United+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caboolture ↓

Broadbeach United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Caboolture or draw
50%
Caboolture or Broadbeach United
80%
Draw or Broadbeach United
70%

Winning margin

Caboolture wins by 2+
14%
Broadbeach United wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Caboolture 1+ goals
82%
Caboolture 2+ goals
52%
Caboolture 3+ goals
25%
Broadbeach United 1+ goals
90%
Broadbeach United 2+ goals
67%
Broadbeach United 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Caboolture (draw refunded)
37%
Broadbeach United (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caboolture at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.22 · 54 matches

Broadbeach United away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caboolture attack 1.98 + Broadbeach United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.74

Broadbeach United attack 2.38 + Caboolture defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Caboolture scores more
30%
level
20%
Broadbeach United scores more
50%

Broadbeach United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Broadbeach United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Caboolture 1–4 Broadbeach United

Broadbeach United beat Caboolture 4-1 in Queensland Premier League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1 in Burpengary.