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Broadbeach United vs Caboolture — Queensland Premier League 2026

Broadbeach United
Broadbeach United
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Caboolture
Caboolture
3/23/2025Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 4Nikiforides Family Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Broadbeach United53%
×Draw20%
Caboolture26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broadbeach United
2.25
Caboolture
1.54

Broadbeach United creates 46% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 50 away

creates per match

Broadbeach United
2.45
Caboolture
1.90

allows per match

Broadbeach United
1.19
Caboolture
2.06

finishing

Broadbeach United+0.00on par
Caboolture+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broadbeach United ↓

Caboolture →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Broadbeach United or draw
74%
Broadbeach United or Caboolture
80%
Draw or Caboolture
47%

Winning margin

Broadbeach United wins by 2+
32%
Caboolture wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Broadbeach United 1+ goals
89%
Broadbeach United 2+ goals
65%
Broadbeach United 3+ goals
39%
Caboolture 1+ goals
79%
Caboolture 2+ goals
45%
Caboolture 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Broadbeach United (draw refunded)
67%
Caboolture (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broadbeach United at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Caboolture away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broadbeach United attack 2.45 + Caboolture defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.25

Caboolture attack 1.90 + Broadbeach United defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Broadbeach United scores more
53%
level
20%
Caboolture scores more
26%

Broadbeach United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Broadbeach United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Broadbeach United vs Caboolture

Broadbeach United beat Caboolture 3-2 in Queensland Premier League on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Nikiforides Family Park in Broadbeach.