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Caboolture vs Albany Creek — Queensland Premier League 2026

Caboolture
Caboolture
FT
1 – 1
Albany Creek
Albany Creek
3/4/2023Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 2Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Caboolture37%
×Draw23%
Albany Creek40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caboolture
1.67
Albany Creek
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 11 away

creates per match

Caboolture
1.98
Albany Creek
1.27

allows per match

Caboolture
2.22
Albany Creek
1.36

finishing

Caboolture+0.00on par
Albany Creek+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caboolture ↓

Albany Creek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Caboolture or draw
60%
Caboolture or Albany Creek
77%
Draw or Albany Creek
63%

Winning margin

Caboolture wins by 2+
19%
Albany Creek wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Caboolture 1+ goals
81%
Caboolture 2+ goals
50%
Caboolture 3+ goals
23%
Albany Creek 1+ goals
83%
Albany Creek 2+ goals
52%
Albany Creek 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Caboolture (draw refunded)
48%
Albany Creek (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caboolture at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.22 · 54 matches

Albany Creek away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caboolture attack 1.98 + Albany Creek defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.67

Albany Creek attack 1.27 + Caboolture defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Caboolture scores more
37%
level
23%
Albany Creek scores more
40%

Albany Creek at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Albany Creek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caboolture vs Albany Creek

Caboolture and Albany Creek drew 1-1 in Queensland Premier League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1 in Burpengary.