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Cabinteely vs Wexford — First Division 2019

Cabinteely
Cabinteely
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wexford
Wexford
6/28/2019First DivisionFirst Division · Round 18Stradbrook Road (Dublin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cabinteely38%
×Draw26%
Wexford37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cabinteely
1.38
Wexford
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 119 away

creates per match

Cabinteely
1.00
Wexford
1.18

allows per match

Cabinteely
1.54
Wexford
1.76

finishing

Cabinteely+0.00on par
Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabinteely ↓

Wexford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cabinteely or draw
63%
Cabinteely or Wexford
74%
Draw or Wexford
62%

Winning margin

Cabinteely wins by 2+
17%
Wexford wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cabinteely 1+ goals
75%
Cabinteely 2+ goals
40%
Cabinteely 3+ goals
16%
Wexford 1+ goals
74%
Wexford 2+ goals
39%
Wexford 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cabinteely (draw refunded)
51%
Wexford (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabinteely at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabinteely attack 1.00 + Wexford defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wexford attack 1.18 + Cabinteely defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cabinteely scores more
38%
level
26%
Wexford scores more
37%

Cabinteely at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cabinteely will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Cabinteely 2–0 Wexford

Cabinteely beat Wexford 2-0 in First Division on June 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stradbrook Road (Dublin).