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Cabinteely vs Treaty United — First Division 2019

Cabinteely
Cabinteely
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Treaty United
Treaty United
10/29/2021First DivisionFirst Division · Round 27Stradbrook Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cabinteely33%
×Draw27%
Treaty United40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cabinteely
1.19
Treaty United
1.33

Treaty United creates 12% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 99 away

creates per match

Cabinteely
1.00
Treaty United
1.13

allows per match

Cabinteely
1.54
Treaty United
1.38

finishing

Cabinteely+0.00on par
Treaty United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabinteely ↓

Treaty United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cabinteely or draw
60%
Cabinteely or Treaty United
73%
Draw or Treaty United
67%

Winning margin

Cabinteely wins by 2+
14%
Treaty United wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cabinteely 1+ goals
70%
Cabinteely 2+ goals
33%
Cabinteely 3+ goals
12%
Treaty United 1+ goals
74%
Treaty United 2+ goals
38%
Treaty United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cabinteely (draw refunded)
45%
Treaty United (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabinteely at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

Treaty United away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabinteely attack 1.00 + Treaty United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Treaty United attack 1.13 + Cabinteely defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cabinteely scores more
33%
level
27%
Treaty United scores more
40%

Treaty United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Treaty United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cabinteely vs Treaty United

Treaty United beat Cabinteely 2-0 in First Division on October 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stradbrook Road in Dublin.