Cabinteely 0–3 Longford Town: Result & Stats

Cabinteely

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Longford Town

10/9/2020

First Division · Round 16Stradbrook Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cabinteely34%

×Draw26%

Longford Town40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CabinteelyExpected goals in this matchLongford Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.38

Cabinteely

1.27

Longford Town

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 109 away

1.00

creates per match

1.22

1.54

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Cabinteely

1.00

Longford Town

1.22

allows per match

Cabinteely

1.54

Longford Town

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cabinteely+0.00on par

Longford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabinteely ↓

Longford Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cabinteely or draw

60%

Cabinteely or Longford Town

74%

Draw or Longford Town

66%

Winning margin

Cabinteely wins by 2+

15%

Longford Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cabinteely 1+ goals

72%

Cabinteely 2+ goals

36%

Cabinteely 3+ goals

14%

Longford Town 1+ goals

75%

Longford Town 2+ goals

40%

Longford Town 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cabinteely (draw refunded)

47%

Longford Town (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabinteely at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

Longford Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.55 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabinteely attack 1.00 + Longford Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Longford Town attack 1.22 + Cabinteely defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cabinteely scores more

34%

level

26%

Longford Town scores more

40%

Longford Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Longford Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff