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Cabeza Buey vs Badajoz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Cabeza Buey
Cabeza Buey
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Badajoz
Badajoz
11/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 11Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Cabeza del Buey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cabeza Buey39%
×Draw30%
Badajoz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cabeza Buey
1.14
Badajoz
0.97

Cabeza Buey creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

creates per match

Cabeza Buey
1.59
Badajoz
1.35

allows per match

Cabeza Buey
0.59
Badajoz
0.68

finishing

Cabeza Buey+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabeza Buey ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cabeza Buey or draw
69%
Cabeza Buey or Badajoz
70%
Draw or Badajoz
61%

Winning margin

Cabeza Buey wins by 2+
16%
Badajoz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cabeza Buey 1+ goals
68%
Cabeza Buey 2+ goals
32%
Cabeza Buey 3+ goals
11%
Badajoz 1+ goals
62%
Badajoz 2+ goals
25%
Badajoz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cabeza Buey (draw refunded)
56%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabeza Buey at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Badajoz away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabeza Buey attack 1.59 + Badajoz defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.14

Badajoz attack 1.35 + Cabeza Buey defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cabeza Buey scores more
39%
level
30%
Badajoz scores more
31%

Cabeza Buey at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cabeza Buey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cabeza Buey vs Badajoz

Cabeza Buey beat Badajoz 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Cabeza del Buey in Cabeza del Buey.