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Cabeza Buey vs Azuaga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Cabeza Buey
Cabeza Buey
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Azuaga
Azuaga
9/21/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 3Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Cabeza del Buey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cabeza Buey47%
×Draw27%
Azuaga26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cabeza Buey
1.39
Azuaga
0.97

Cabeza Buey creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 108 away

creates per match

Cabeza Buey
1.59
Azuaga
1.34

allows per match

Cabeza Buey
0.59
Azuaga
1.18

finishing

Cabeza Buey+0.00on par
Azuaga+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabeza Buey ↓

Azuaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cabeza Buey or draw
74%
Cabeza Buey or Azuaga
73%
Draw or Azuaga
53%

Winning margin

Cabeza Buey wins by 2+
22%
Azuaga wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cabeza Buey 1+ goals
75%
Cabeza Buey 2+ goals
40%
Cabeza Buey 3+ goals
16%
Azuaga 1+ goals
62%
Azuaga 2+ goals
25%
Azuaga 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cabeza Buey (draw refunded)
64%
Azuaga (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabeza Buey at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Azuaga away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabeza Buey attack 1.59 + Azuaga defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

Azuaga attack 1.34 + Cabeza Buey defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cabeza Buey scores more
47%
level
27%
Azuaga scores more
26%

Cabeza Buey at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cabeza Buey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Cabeza Buey 1–1 Azuaga

Cabeza Buey and Azuaga drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Cabeza del Buey in Cabeza del Buey.