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Cabecense vs Rota — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Cabecense
Cabecense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rota
Rota
10/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 9Estadio Municipal Carlos Marchena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cabecense49%
×Draw26%
Rota25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cabecense
1.50
Rota
1.01

Cabecense creates 49% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 57 away

creates per match

Cabecense
1.11
Rota
0.67

allows per match

Cabecense
1.34
Rota
1.89

finishing

Cabecense+0.00on par
Rota+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabecense ↓

Rota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cabecense or draw
75%
Cabecense or Rota
74%
Draw or Rota
51%

Winning margin

Cabecense wins by 2+
24%
Rota wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cabecense 1+ goals
78%
Cabecense 2+ goals
44%
Cabecense 3+ goals
19%
Rota 1+ goals
64%
Rota 2+ goals
27%
Rota 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cabecense (draw refunded)
66%
Rota (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabecense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

Rota away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.89 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabecense attack 1.11 + Rota defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rota attack 0.67 + Cabecense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cabecense scores more
49%
level
26%
Rota scores more
25%

Cabecense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cabecense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cabecense vs Rota

Cabecense and Rota drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Marchena in Las Cabezas de San Juan.