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Cabecense vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Cabecense
Cabecense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Jesús Torres 32'
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Municipal Carlos Marchena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cabecense43%
×Draw27%
La Palma30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cabecense
1.39
La Palma
1.11

Cabecense creates 25% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 48 away

creates per match

Cabecense
1.11
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Cabecense
1.34
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Cabecense+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabecense ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cabecense or draw
70%
Cabecense or La Palma
73%
Draw or La Palma
57%

Winning margin

Cabecense wins by 2+
20%
La Palma wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cabecense 1+ goals
75%
Cabecense 2+ goals
40%
Cabecense 3+ goals
16%
La Palma 1+ goals
67%
La Palma 2+ goals
30%
La Palma 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cabecense (draw refunded)
59%
La Palma (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabecense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabecense attack 1.11 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

La Palma attack 0.88 + Cabecense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cabecense scores more
43%
level
27%
La Palma scores more
30%

Cabecense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cabecense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Jesús Torres
46'
Manu← José Carlos
46'
Manu León← José Bucarat
46'
Mazin← Pablo Garcia
56'
Manu Calle← Alberto Sánchez
67'
Luismi← Fran Ganfornina
69'
Segura← Galleti
69'
Manolo Suárez← Manu Cruzado
72'
Fran← Jesús Torres
89'
Ismael Maruja← Miguel Lobo
Cabecense
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Diego Domínguez
Domínguez
Carlos Martínez
Martínez
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Alberto Sánchez
▼
Sánchez
Paco
Paco
Mario de Iraola
Iraola
Alvarito
Alvarito
Pablo Garcia
▼
Garcia
Manu Cruzado
▼
Cruzado
Galleti
▼
Galleti
Iván Casas
Casas
Francis
Francis
José Bucarat
▼
Bucarat
José Marí
Marí
Luis Dominguez
Dominguez
Carlos García
García
Fran Ganfornina
▼
Ganfornin
Dani Marín
Marín
José Carlos
▼
Carlos
Jesús Torres
⚽
▼
Torres
Miguel Lobo
▼
Lobo
Rogelio Sánchez
Manager: Rogelio Sánchez
46'▲Manu←▼José Carlos
46'▲Manu León←▼José Bucarat
67'▲Luismi←▼Fran Ganfornina
72'▲Fran←▼Jesús Torres
89'▲Ismael Maruja←▼Miguel Lobo

Cabecense substitutes

ManuLeónLuismiFranMaruja
Mario Rodriguez
Manager: Mario Rodriguez
46'▲Mazin←▼Pablo Garcia
56'▲Manu Calle←▼Alberto Sánchez
69'▲Segura←▼Galleti
69'▲Manolo Suárez←▼Manu Cruzado

La Palma substitutes

MazinCalleSeguraSuárez

Cabecense 1 – 0 La Palma

Cabecense beat La Palma 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 2, 2021.

Goals: Jesús Torres (32').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Marchena in Las Cabezas de San Juan.