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Cabecense vs Conil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Cabecense
Cabecense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Conil
Conil
12/8/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 15Estadio Municipal Carlos Marchena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cabecense43%
×Draw27%
Conil30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cabecense
1.35
Conil
1.08

Cabecense creates 25% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 111 away

creates per match

Cabecense
1.11
Conil
0.81

allows per match

Cabecense
1.34
Conil
1.60

finishing

Cabecense+0.00on par
Conil+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabecense ↓

Conil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cabecense or draw
70%
Cabecense or Conil
73%
Draw or Conil
57%

Winning margin

Cabecense wins by 2+
20%
Conil wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cabecense 1+ goals
74%
Cabecense 2+ goals
39%
Cabecense 3+ goals
15%
Conil 1+ goals
66%
Conil 2+ goals
29%
Conil 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cabecense (draw refunded)
59%
Conil (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabecense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

Conil away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabecense attack 1.11 + Conil defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Conil attack 0.81 + Cabecense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cabecense scores more
43%
level
27%
Conil scores more
30%

Cabecense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cabecense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cabecense vs Conil

Conil beat Cabecense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Marchena in Las Cabezas de San Juan.