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Cabecense vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Cabecense
Cabecense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 17Estadio Municipal Carlos Marchena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cabecense31%
×Draw29%
Ciudad de Lucena40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cabecense
1.01
Ciudad de Lucena
1.20

Ciudad de Lucena creates 19% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 110 away

creates per match

Cabecense
1.11
Ciudad de Lucena
1.06

allows per match

Cabecense
1.34
Ciudad de Lucena
0.90

finishing

Cabecense+0.00on par
Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabecense ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cabecense or draw
60%
Cabecense or Ciudad de Lucena
71%
Draw or Ciudad de Lucena
69%

Winning margin

Cabecense wins by 2+
11%
Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cabecense 1+ goals
64%
Cabecense 2+ goals
27%
Cabecense 3+ goals
8%
Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
70%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
34%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cabecense (draw refunded)
43%
Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cabecense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cabecense attack 1.11 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Cabecense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cabecense scores more
31%
level
29%
Ciudad de Lucena scores more
40%

Ciudad de Lucena at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cabecense vs Ciudad de Lucena

Ciudad de Lucena beat Cabecense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Marchena in Las Cabezas de San Juan.