Cabecense 1–3 Ceuta II: Result & Stats

Cabecense

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Ceuta II

2/17/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 22Estadio Municipal Carlos Marchena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cabecense40%

×Draw28%

Ceuta II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CabecenseExpected goals in this matchCeuta II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

Cabecense

1.25

Ceuta II

1.08

Cabecense creates 16% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 82 away

1.11

creates per match

0.82

1.34

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Cabecense

1.11

Ceuta II

0.82

allows per match

Cabecense

1.34

Ceuta II

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cabecense+0.00on par

Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cabecense ↓

Ceuta II →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cabecense or draw

68%

Cabecense or Ceuta II

72%

Draw or Ceuta II

60%

Winning margin

Cabecense wins by 2+

18%

Ceuta II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cabecense 1+ goals

71%

Cabecense 2+ goals

36%

Cabecense 3+ goals

13%

Ceuta II 1+ goals

66%

Ceuta II 2+ goals

29%

Ceuta II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cabecense (draw refunded)

56%

Ceuta II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cabecense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cabecense attack 1.11 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Cabecense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cabecense scores more

40%

level

28%

Ceuta II scores more

32%

Cabecense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cabecense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff