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Stumbras II vs Banga — 1 Lyga 2026

Stumbras II
Stumbras II
FT
0 – 4
Banga
Banga
6/23/20181 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 13Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Stumbras II32%
×Draw24%
Banga44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stumbras II
1.32
Banga
1.60

Banga creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stumbras II
1.64
Banga
1.94

allows per match

Stumbras II
1.27
Banga
1.00

finishing

Stumbras II+0.00on par
Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stumbras II ↓

Banga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stumbras II or draw
56%
Stumbras II or Banga
76%
Draw or Banga
68%

Winning margin

Stumbras II wins by 2+
14%
Banga wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stumbras II 1+ goals
73%
Stumbras II 2+ goals
38%
Stumbras II 3+ goals
15%
Banga 1+ goals
80%
Banga 2+ goals
47%
Banga 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Stumbras II (draw refunded)
42%
Banga (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stumbras II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Banga away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stumbras II attack 1.64 + Banga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Banga attack 1.94 + Stumbras II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stumbras II scores more
32%
level
24%
Banga scores more
44%

Banga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stumbras II vs Banga

Banga beat Stumbras II 4-0 in 1 Lyga on June 23, 2018.

The match was played at Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas in Kaunas.