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CA Taquaritinga U20 vs São Carlos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

CA Taquaritinga U20
CA Taquaritinga U20
FT
1 – 0
São Carlos U20
São Carlos U20
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Adail Nunes da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CA Taquaritinga U2026%
×Draw22%
São Carlos U2051%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Taquaritinga U20
1.30
São Carlos U20
1.90

São Carlos U20 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

CA Taquaritinga U20
0.20
São Carlos U20
0.40

allows per match

CA Taquaritinga U20
3.40
São Carlos U20
2.40

finishing

CA Taquaritinga U20+0.00on par
São Carlos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Taquaritinga U20 ↓

São Carlos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

CA Taquaritinga U20 or draw
49%
CA Taquaritinga U20 or São Carlos U20
78%
Draw or São Carlos U20
74%

Winning margin

CA Taquaritinga U20 wins by 2+
11%
São Carlos U20 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

CA Taquaritinga U20 1+ goals
73%
CA Taquaritinga U20 2+ goals
37%
CA Taquaritinga U20 3+ goals
14%
São Carlos U20 1+ goals
85%
São Carlos U20 2+ goals
56%
São Carlos U20 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

CA Taquaritinga U20 (draw refunded)
34%
São Carlos U20 (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Taquaritinga U20 at home — creates 0.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

São Carlos U20 away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Taquaritinga U20 attack 0.20 + São Carlos U20 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

São Carlos U20 attack 0.40 + CA Taquaritinga U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CA Taquaritinga U20 scores more
26%
level
22%
São Carlos U20 scores more
51%

São Carlos U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "São Carlos U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: CA Taquaritinga U20 1–0 São Carlos U20

CA Taquaritinga U20 beat São Carlos U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Adail Nunes da Silva in Taquaritinga, São Paulo.