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CA Taquaritinga U20 vs Ferroviária U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

CA Taquaritinga U20
CA Taquaritinga U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
G. Galdino dos Santos 79'
M. Thiago 49'
D. Silva 38'
6/7/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Adail Nunes da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CA Taquaritinga U207%
×Draw14%
Ferroviária U2078%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Taquaritinga U20
0.65
Ferroviária U20
2.55

Ferroviária U20 creates 292% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

creates per match

CA Taquaritinga U20
0.20
Ferroviária U20
1.70

allows per match

CA Taquaritinga U20
3.40
Ferroviária U20
1.09

finishing

CA Taquaritinga U20+0.00on par
Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Taquaritinga U20 ↓

Ferroviária U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–213%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

CA Taquaritinga U20 or draw
22%
CA Taquaritinga U20 or Ferroviária U20
86%
Draw or Ferroviária U20
93%

Winning margin

CA Taquaritinga U20 wins by 2+
2%
Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

CA Taquaritinga U20 1+ goals
48%
CA Taquaritinga U20 2+ goals
14%
CA Taquaritinga U20 3+ goals
3%
Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
92%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
72%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

CA Taquaritinga U20 (draw refunded)
9%
Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Taquaritinga U20 at home — creates 0.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Ferroviária U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Taquaritinga U20 attack 0.20 + Ferroviária U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.65

Ferroviária U20 attack 1.70 + CA Taquaritinga U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

CA Taquaritinga U20 scores more
7%
level
14%
Ferroviária U20 scores more
78%

Ferroviária U20 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
D. Silva
49'
M. Thiago
79'
G. Galdino dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CA Taquaritinga U20 vs Ferroviária U20

Ferroviária U20 beat CA Taquaritinga U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 7, 2024.

Goals: D. Silva (38'), M. Thiago (49'), G. Galdino dos Santos (79').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Adail Nunes da Silva in Taquaritinga, São Paulo.