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CA River Plate vs Villa Espanola — Primera División - Apertura 2026

CA River Plate
CA River Plate
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Villa Espanola
Villa Espanola
M. Saavedra 59', 39'
P. Silva 17'
11/26/2016Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Round 13Parque Federico Omar Saroldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

CA River Plate56%
×Draw23%
Villa Espanola21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA River Plate
1.78
Villa Espanola
1.00

CA River Plate creates 78% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 9 away

creates per match

CA River Plate
1.56
Villa Espanola
0.78

allows per match

CA River Plate
1.23
Villa Espanola
2.00

finishing

CA River Plate+0.00on par
Villa Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA River Plate ↓

Villa Espanola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CA River Plate or draw
79%
CA River Plate or Villa Espanola
77%
Draw or Villa Espanola
44%

Winning margin

CA River Plate wins by 2+
31%
Villa Espanola wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CA River Plate 1+ goals
83%
CA River Plate 2+ goals
53%
CA River Plate 3+ goals
26%
Villa Espanola 1+ goals
63%
Villa Espanola 2+ goals
26%
Villa Espanola 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CA River Plate (draw refunded)
72%
Villa Espanola (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA River Plate at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Villa Espanola away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA River Plate attack 1.56 + Villa Espanola defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Villa Espanola attack 0.78 + CA River Plate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CA River Plate scores more
56%
level
23%
Villa Espanola scores more
21%

CA River Plate at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CA River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
P. Silva
39'
M. Saavedra
59'
M. Saavedra

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: CA River Plate 2–1 Villa Espanola

CA River Plate beat Villa Espanola 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on November 26, 2016.

Goals: P. Silva (17'), M. Saavedra (39', 59').

The match was played at Parque Federico Omar Saroldi in Montevideo.