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CA La Paz vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

CA La Paz
CA La Paz
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
4/18/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - ReclasificacionEstadio Guaycura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CA La Paz45%
×Draw24%
Mineros de Zacatecas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA La Paz
1.66
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.32

CA La Paz creates 26% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 136 away

creates per match

CA La Paz
1.78
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.24

allows per match

CA La Paz
1.41
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.53

finishing

CA La Paz+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA La Paz ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

CA La Paz or draw
69%
CA La Paz or Mineros de Zacatecas
76%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
55%

Winning margin

CA La Paz wins by 2+
24%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CA La Paz 1+ goals
81%
CA La Paz 2+ goals
49%
CA La Paz 3+ goals
23%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
73%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
38%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CA La Paz (draw refunded)
60%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA La Paz at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA La Paz attack 1.78 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.24 + CA La Paz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CA La Paz scores more
45%
level
24%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
31%

CA La Paz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CA La Paz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CA La Paz vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Mineros de Zacatecas beat CA La Paz 3-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on April 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Guaycura in La Paz.