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CA La Paz vs Celaya — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

CA La Paz
CA La Paz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Celaya
Celaya
7/27/2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Guaycura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CA La Paz41%
×Draw26%
Celaya33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA La Paz
1.46
Celaya
1.28

CA La Paz creates 14% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 119 away

creates per match

CA La Paz
1.78
Celaya
1.15

allows per match

CA La Paz
1.41
Celaya
1.13

finishing

CA La Paz+0.00on par
Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA La Paz ↓

Celaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CA La Paz or draw
67%
CA La Paz or Celaya
74%
Draw or Celaya
59%

Winning margin

CA La Paz wins by 2+
20%
Celaya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

CA La Paz 1+ goals
77%
CA La Paz 2+ goals
43%
CA La Paz 3+ goals
18%
Celaya 1+ goals
72%
Celaya 2+ goals
37%
Celaya 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CA La Paz (draw refunded)
56%
Celaya (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA La Paz at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA La Paz attack 1.78 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Celaya attack 1.15 + CA La Paz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CA La Paz scores more
41%
level
26%
Celaya scores more
33%

CA La Paz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CA La Paz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: CA La Paz 0–0 Celaya

CA La Paz and Celaya drew 0-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on July 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Guaycura in La Paz.