CA La Paz 2–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca: Result & Stats

CA La Paz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

3/23/2024

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 12Estadio Guaycura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CA La Paz52%

×Draw23%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA La PazExpected goals in this matchAlebrijes de Oaxaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.17

CA La Paz

1.79

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.17

CA La Paz creates 53% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 124 away

1.78

creates per match

0.93

1.41

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

CA La Paz

1.78

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

0.93

allows per match

CA La Paz

1.41

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA La Paz+0.00on par

Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA La Paz ↓

Alebrijes de Oaxaca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

CA La Paz or draw

75%

CA La Paz or Alebrijes de Oaxaca

77%

Draw or Alebrijes de Oaxaca

48%

Winning margin

CA La Paz wins by 2+

29%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CA La Paz 1+ goals

83%

CA La Paz 2+ goals

53%

CA La Paz 3+ goals

26%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals

69%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals

33%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CA La Paz (draw refunded)

68%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA La Paz at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA La Paz attack 1.78 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 0.93 + CA La Paz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CA La Paz scores more

52%

level

23%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more

25%

CA La Paz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CA La Paz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff