Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–2 CA La Paz: Result & Stats

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

CA La Paz

4/5/2025

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca53%

×Draw23%

CA La Paz24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alebrijes de OaxacaExpected goals in this matchCA La Paz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.15

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.84

CA La Paz

1.15

Alebrijes de Oaxaca creates 60% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 64 away

1.41

creates per match

1.09

1.20

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.41

CA La Paz

1.09

allows per match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

1.20

CA La Paz

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

CA La Paz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alebrijes de Oaxaca ↓

CA La Paz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw

76%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca or CA La Paz

77%

Draw or CA La Paz

47%

Winning margin

Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+

30%

CA La Paz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals

84%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals

55%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals

28%

CA La Paz 1+ goals

68%

CA La Paz 2+ goals

32%

CA La Paz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)

69%

CA La Paz (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 120 matches

CA La Paz away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 1.41 + CA La Paz defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.84

CA La Paz attack 1.09 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more

53%

level

23%

CA La Paz scores more

24%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff