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CA Joseense U20 vs Pinda U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

CA Joseense U20
CA Joseense U20
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Pinda U20
Pinda U20
Adrian 84'
Andre 34'
Kaua 62' (OG)
G. Fernandes 47', 37'
A. Schneider 22'
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Centro Esportivo João do Pulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CA Joseense U2030%
×Draw19%
Pinda U2051%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Joseense U20
2.00
Pinda U20
2.60

Pinda U20 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

CA Joseense U20
2.80
Pinda U20
3.20

allows per match

CA Joseense U20
2.00
Pinda U20
1.20

finishing

CA Joseense U20+0.00on par
Pinda U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 83Under: 1783%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 80No: 2080%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Joseense U20 ↓

Pinda U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

CA Joseense U20 or draw
49%
CA Joseense U20 or Pinda U20
81%
Draw or Pinda U20
70%

Winning margin

CA Joseense U20 wins by 2+
16%
Pinda U20 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

CA Joseense U20 1+ goals
86%
CA Joseense U20 2+ goals
59%
CA Joseense U20 3+ goals
32%
Pinda U20 1+ goals
92%
Pinda U20 2+ goals
73%
Pinda U20 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

CA Joseense U20 (draw refunded)
37%
Pinda U20 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Joseense U20 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Pinda U20 away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Joseense U20 attack 2.80 + Pinda U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.00

Pinda U20 attack 3.20 + CA Joseense U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CA Joseense U20 scores more
30%
level
19%
Pinda U20 scores more
51%

Pinda U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pinda U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. Schneider
34'
Andre
37'
G. Fernandes
47'
G. Fernandes
62'
KauaOwn goal
68'
Pedro
81'
Danilo
84'
Adrian

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: CA Joseense U20 2–4 Pinda U20

Pinda U20 beat CA Joseense U20 4-2 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: A. Schneider (22'), Andre (34'), G. Fernandes (37', 47'), Kaua (62' o.g.), Adrian (84').

The match was played at Centro Esportivo João do Pulo in São José dos Campos, São Paulo.