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CA Furrial vs Yaracuyanos FC — Segunda División 2018

CA Furrial
CA Furrial
FT
1 – 4
Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
5/4/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 9Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CA Furrial32%
×Draw26%
Yaracuyanos FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Furrial
1.23
Yaracuyanos FC
1.48

Yaracuyanos FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 80 away

creates per match

CA Furrial
1.19
Yaracuyanos FC
1.45

allows per match

CA Furrial
1.52
Yaracuyanos FC
1.26

finishing

CA Furrial+0.00on par
Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Furrial ↓

Yaracuyanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CA Furrial or draw
57%
CA Furrial or Yaracuyanos FC
74%
Draw or Yaracuyanos FC
68%

Winning margin

CA Furrial wins by 2+
13%
Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

CA Furrial 1+ goals
71%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
35%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
13%
Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
77%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
43%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

CA Furrial (draw refunded)
42%
Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Yaracuyanos FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Furrial attack 1.19 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.45 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CA Furrial scores more
32%
level
26%
Yaracuyanos FC scores more
43%

Yaracuyanos FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CA Furrial 1 – 4 Yaracuyanos FC

Yaracuyanos FC beat CA Furrial 4-1 in Segunda División on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).