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CA Furrial vs Yaracuy FC — Segunda División 2018

CA Furrial
CA Furrial
FT
1 – 1
Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
4/15/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 7Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CA Furrial34%
×Draw26%
Yaracuy FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Furrial
1.27
Yaracuy FC
1.41

Yaracuy FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

creates per match

CA Furrial
1.19
Yaracuy FC
1.30

allows per match

CA Furrial
1.52
Yaracuy FC
1.34

finishing

CA Furrial+0.00on par
Yaracuy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Furrial ↓

Yaracuy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CA Furrial or draw
60%
CA Furrial or Yaracuy FC
74%
Draw or Yaracuy FC
66%

Winning margin

CA Furrial wins by 2+
15%
Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

CA Furrial 1+ goals
72%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
36%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
14%
Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
76%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
41%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

CA Furrial (draw refunded)
46%
Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Yaracuy FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Furrial attack 1.19 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Yaracuy FC attack 1.30 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CA Furrial scores more
34%
level
26%
Yaracuy FC scores more
40%

Yaracuy FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CA Furrial 1 – 1 Yaracuy FC

CA Furrial and Yaracuy FC drew 1-1 in Segunda División on April 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).