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CA Furrial vs Petare FC — Segunda División 2018

CA Furrial
CA Furrial
FT
1 – 0
Petare FC
Petare FC
9/13/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 6Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CA Furrial35%
×Draw28%
Petare FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Furrial
1.14
Petare FC
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 102 away

creates per match

CA Furrial
1.19
Petare FC
0.84

allows per match

CA Furrial
1.52
Petare FC
1.08

finishing

CA Furrial+0.00on par
Petare FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Furrial ↓

Petare FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CA Furrial or draw
63%
CA Furrial or Petare FC
72%
Draw or Petare FC
65%

Winning margin

CA Furrial wins by 2+
14%
Petare FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

CA Furrial 1+ goals
68%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
32%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
11%
Petare FC 1+ goals
69%
Petare FC 2+ goals
33%
Petare FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CA Furrial (draw refunded)
49%
Petare FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Petare FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Furrial attack 1.19 + Petare FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Petare FC attack 0.84 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CA Furrial scores more
35%
level
28%
Petare FC scores more
37%

Petare FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Petare FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CA Furrial 1 – 0 Petare FC

CA Furrial beat Petare FC 1-0 in Segunda División on September 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).