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CA Furrial vs Llaneros de Guanare — Segunda División 2018

CA Furrial
CA Furrial
FT
0 – 3
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
3/1/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 2Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CA Furrial40%
×Draw26%
Llaneros de Guanare34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Furrial
1.36
Llaneros de Guanare
1.23

CA Furrial creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 43 away

creates per match

CA Furrial
1.19
Llaneros de Guanare
0.93

allows per match

CA Furrial
1.52
Llaneros de Guanare
1.53

finishing

CA Furrial+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Furrial ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CA Furrial or draw
66%
CA Furrial or Llaneros de Guanare
74%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
60%

Winning margin

CA Furrial wins by 2+
18%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

CA Furrial 1+ goals
74%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
39%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
16%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
71%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
35%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

CA Furrial (draw refunded)
54%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Furrial attack 1.19 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CA Furrial scores more
40%
level
26%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
34%

CA Furrial at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CA Furrial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: CA Furrial 0–3 Llaneros de Guanare

Llaneros de Guanare beat CA Furrial 3-0 in Segunda División on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto in Guanare.