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CA Furrial vs Gran Valencia — Segunda División 2018

CA Furrial
CA Furrial
FT
1 – 5
Gran Valencia
Gran Valencia
3/31/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 5Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CA Furrial35%
×Draw26%
Gran Valencia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Furrial
1.25
Gran Valencia
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

CA Furrial
1.19
Gran Valencia
1.16

allows per match

CA Furrial
1.52
Gran Valencia
1.32

finishing

CA Furrial+0.00on par
Gran Valencia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Furrial ↓

Gran Valencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CA Furrial or draw
61%
CA Furrial or Gran Valencia
74%
Draw or Gran Valencia
65%

Winning margin

CA Furrial wins by 2+
15%
Gran Valencia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

CA Furrial 1+ goals
71%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
36%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
13%
Gran Valencia 1+ goals
74%
Gran Valencia 2+ goals
39%
Gran Valencia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CA Furrial (draw refunded)
47%
Gran Valencia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Gran Valencia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Furrial attack 1.19 + Gran Valencia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gran Valencia attack 1.16 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CA Furrial scores more
35%
level
26%
Gran Valencia scores more
39%

Gran Valencia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gran Valencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CA Furrial 1 – 5 Gran Valencia

Gran Valencia beat CA Furrial 5-1 in Segunda División on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).