CA Furrial 1–3 Fundación Lara Deportiva

CA Furrial

FT

1 – 3

Fundación Lara Deportiva

3/4/2020

Segunda División · Apertura - 3Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CA Furrial36%

×Draw27%

Fundación Lara Deportiva37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA FurrialExpected goals in this matchFundación Lara Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.26

CA Furrial

1.25

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 77 away

1.19

creates per match

1.00

1.52

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

CA Furrial

1.19

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.00

allows per match

CA Furrial

1.52

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Furrial+0.00on par

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Furrial ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CA Furrial or draw

63%

CA Furrial or Fundación Lara Deportiva

73%

Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva

64%

Winning margin

CA Furrial wins by 2+

16%

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

CA Furrial 1+ goals

71%

CA Furrial 2+ goals

36%

CA Furrial 3+ goals

13%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals

72%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals

36%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

CA Furrial (draw refunded)

50%

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Furrial attack 1.19 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CA Furrial scores more

36%

level

27%

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more

37%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff