CA Furrial 1–5 Diamantes de Guayana: Result & Stats

CA Furrial

FT

1 – 5

Diamantes de Guayana

5/2/2018

Segunda División · Apertura - 14Estadio Monumental de Maturín (Maturín)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CA Furrial36%

×Draw26%

Diamantes de Guayana37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA FurrialExpected goals in this matchDiamantes de Guayana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.31

CA Furrial

1.28

Diamantes de Guayana

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 34 away

1.19

creates per match

1.09

1.52

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

CA Furrial

1.19

Diamantes de Guayana

1.09

allows per match

CA Furrial

1.52

Diamantes de Guayana

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Furrial+0.00on par

Diamantes de Guayana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Furrial ↓

Diamantes de Guayana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CA Furrial or draw

63%

CA Furrial or Diamantes de Guayana

74%

Draw or Diamantes de Guayana

64%

Winning margin

CA Furrial wins by 2+

16%

Diamantes de Guayana wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

CA Furrial 1+ goals

72%

CA Furrial 2+ goals

37%

CA Furrial 3+ goals

14%

Diamantes de Guayana 1+ goals

73%

Diamantes de Guayana 2+ goals

38%

Diamantes de Guayana 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CA Furrial (draw refunded)

49%

Diamantes de Guayana (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Diamantes de Guayana away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Furrial attack 1.19 + Diamantes de Guayana defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Diamantes de Guayana attack 1.09 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CA Furrial scores more

36%

level

26%

Diamantes de Guayana scores more

37%

Diamantes de Guayana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Diamantes de Guayana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff