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CA Furrial vs Atletico el Vigia FC — Segunda División 2018

CA Furrial
CA Furrialadvanced
FT
2 – 0
Atletico el Vigia FC
Atletico el Vigia FC
10/18/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CA Furrial42%
×Draw26%
Atletico el Vigia FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Furrial
1.46
Atletico el Vigia FC
1.25

CA Furrial creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 104 away

creates per match

CA Furrial
1.19
Atletico el Vigia FC
0.97

allows per match

CA Furrial
1.52
Atletico el Vigia FC
1.72

finishing

CA Furrial+0.00on par
Atletico el Vigia FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Furrial ↓

Atletico el Vigia FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CA Furrial or draw
68%
CA Furrial or Atletico el Vigia FC
74%
Draw or Atletico el Vigia FC
58%

Winning margin

CA Furrial wins by 2+
20%
Atletico el Vigia FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

CA Furrial 1+ goals
77%
CA Furrial 2+ goals
43%
CA Furrial 3+ goals
18%
Atletico el Vigia FC 1+ goals
71%
Atletico el Vigia FC 2+ goals
36%
Atletico el Vigia FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

CA Furrial (draw refunded)
56%
Atletico el Vigia FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Atletico el Vigia FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Furrial attack 1.19 + Atletico el Vigia FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Atletico el Vigia FC attack 0.97 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CA Furrial scores more
42%
level
26%
Atletico el Vigia FC scores more
32%

CA Furrial at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CA Furrial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CA Furrial vs Atletico el Vigia FC

CA Furrial beat Atletico el Vigia FC 2-0 in Segunda División on October 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).