CA Furrial 1–1 Angostura FC: Result & Stats

CA Furrial

FT

1 – 1

Angostura FC

9/23/2018

Segunda División · Clausura - 13Estadio Alexander Comanche Bottini (Maturín)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

CA Furrial35%

×Draw27%

Angostura FC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA FurrialExpected goals in this matchAngostura FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.29

CA Furrial

1.23

Angostura FC

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 74 away

1.19

creates per match

1.05

1.52

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

CA Furrial

1.19

Angostura FC

1.05

allows per match

CA Furrial

1.52

Angostura FC

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Furrial+0.00on par

Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Furrial ↓

Angostura FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CA Furrial or draw

62%

CA Furrial or Angostura FC

73%

Draw or Angostura FC

65%

Winning margin

CA Furrial wins by 2+

15%

Angostura FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

CA Furrial 1+ goals

71%

CA Furrial 2+ goals

35%

CA Furrial 3+ goals

13%

Angostura FC 1+ goals

72%

Angostura FC 2+ goals

37%

Angostura FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CA Furrial (draw refunded)

48%

Angostura FC (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Furrial at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Furrial attack 1.19 + Angostura FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Angostura FC attack 1.05 + CA Furrial defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CA Furrial scores more

35%

level

27%

Angostura FC scores more

38%

Angostura FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Angostura FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff