CA Estudiantes 2–0 Villa San Carlos: Result & Stats

CA Estudiantes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Villa San Carlos

D. Torres 7', 1'

7/5/2015

Primera B Metropolitana · Round 22Estadio Ciudad de Caseros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

CA Estudiantes48%

×Draw29%

Villa San Carlos23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA EstudiantesExpected goals in this matchVilla San Carlos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.78

CA Estudiantes

1.27

Villa San Carlos

0.78

CA Estudiantes creates 63% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 65 away

1.25

creates per match

0.69

0.88

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

CA Estudiantes

1.25

Villa San Carlos

0.69

allows per match

CA Estudiantes

0.88

Villa San Carlos

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par

Villa San Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Estudiantes ↓

Villa San Carlos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CA Estudiantes or draw

77%

CA Estudiantes or Villa San Carlos

71%

Draw or Villa San Carlos

52%

Winning margin

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+

22%

Villa San Carlos wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals

72%

CA Estudiantes 2+ goals

36%

CA Estudiantes 3+ goals

14%

Villa San Carlos 1+ goals

54%

Villa San Carlos 2+ goals

18%

Villa San Carlos 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)

68%

Villa San Carlos (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Estudiantes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Villa San Carlos away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.29 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Estudiantes attack 1.25 + Villa San Carlos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Villa San Carlos attack 0.69 + CA Estudiantes defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CA Estudiantes scores more

48%

level

29%

Villa San Carlos scores more

23%

CA Estudiantes at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CA Estudiantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

D. Torres

7'

D. Torres

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff