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CA Estudiantes vs San Miguel — Primera Nacional 2026

CA Estudiantes
CA Estudiantes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Miguel
San Miguel
6/29/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 21Estadio Ciudad de Caseros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

CA Estudiantes48%
×Draw31%
San Miguel20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Estudiantes
1.16
San Miguel
0.64

CA Estudiantes creates 81% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 48 away

creates per match

CA Estudiantes
1.25
San Miguel
0.56

allows per match

CA Estudiantes
0.72
San Miguel
1.06

finishing

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par
San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Estudiantes ↓

San Miguel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

CA Estudiantes or draw
80%
CA Estudiantes or San Miguel
69%
Draw or San Miguel
52%

Winning margin

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+
21%
San Miguel wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals
69%
CA Estudiantes 2+ goals
32%
CA Estudiantes 3+ goals
11%
San Miguel 1+ goals
47%
San Miguel 2+ goals
14%
San Miguel 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)
70%
San Miguel (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Estudiantes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.72 · 120 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.06 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Estudiantes attack 1.25 + San Miguel defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

San Miguel attack 0.56 + CA Estudiantes defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CA Estudiantes scores more
48%
level
31%
San Miguel scores more
20%

CA Estudiantes at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CA Estudiantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CA Estudiantes vs San Miguel

CA Estudiantes and San Miguel drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Caseros in Caseros, Provincia de Buenos Aires.