CA Estudiantes 1–2 Quilmes: Result & Stats

CA Estudiantes

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Quilmes

2/17/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 3Estadio Ciudad de Caseros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

CA Estudiantes44%

×Draw31%

Quilmes25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA EstudiantesExpected goals in this matchQuilmes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.80

CA Estudiantes

1.16

Quilmes

0.80

CA Estudiantes creates 45% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 129 away

1.25

creates per match

0.88

0.72

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

CA Estudiantes

1.25

Quilmes

0.88

allows per match

CA Estudiantes

0.72

Quilmes

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par

Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Estudiantes ↓

Quilmes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

CA Estudiantes or draw

75%

CA Estudiantes or Quilmes

69%

Draw or Quilmes

56%

Winning margin

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+

19%

Quilmes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals

69%

CA Estudiantes 2+ goals

32%

CA Estudiantes 3+ goals

11%

Quilmes 1+ goals

55%

Quilmes 2+ goals

19%

Quilmes 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)

64%

Quilmes (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Estudiantes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.72 · 120 matches

Quilmes away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.06 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Estudiantes attack 1.25 + Quilmes defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Quilmes attack 0.88 + CA Estudiantes defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CA Estudiantes scores more

44%

level

31%

Quilmes scores more

25%

CA Estudiantes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CA Estudiantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff