CA Estudiantes 1–0 Arsenal Sarandi: Result & Stats

CA Estudiantes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arsenal Sarandi

3/23/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 8Estadio Ciudad de Caseros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

CA Estudiantes51%

×Draw29%

Arsenal Sarandi20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA EstudiantesExpected goals in this matchArsenal Sarandi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.71

CA Estudiantes

1.32

Arsenal Sarandi

0.71

CA Estudiantes creates 86% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 49 away

1.25

creates per match

0.71

0.72

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

CA Estudiantes

1.25

Arsenal Sarandi

0.71

allows per match

CA Estudiantes

0.72

Arsenal Sarandi

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par

Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Estudiantes ↓

Arsenal Sarandi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

CA Estudiantes or draw

80%

CA Estudiantes or Arsenal Sarandi

71%

Draw or Arsenal Sarandi

49%

Winning margin

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+

24%

Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals

73%

CA Estudiantes 2+ goals

38%

CA Estudiantes 3+ goals

15%

Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals

51%

Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals

16%

Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)

72%

Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Estudiantes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.72 · 120 matches

Arsenal Sarandi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.39 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Estudiantes attack 1.25 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Arsenal Sarandi attack 0.71 + CA Estudiantes defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CA Estudiantes scores more

51%

level

29%

Arsenal Sarandi scores more

20%

CA Estudiantes at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CA Estudiantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff