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CA Estudiantes vs Almagro — Primera Nacional 2026

CA Estudiantes
CA Estudiantes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Almagro
Almagro
3/2/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 5Estadio Ciudad de Caseros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

CA Estudiantes49%
×Draw29%
Almagro22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Estudiantes
1.27
Almagro
0.74

CA Estudiantes creates 72% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 127 away

creates per match

CA Estudiantes
1.25
Almagro
0.76

allows per match

CA Estudiantes
0.72
Almagro
1.28

finishing

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par
Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Estudiantes ↓

Almagro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CA Estudiantes or draw
78%
CA Estudiantes or Almagro
71%
Draw or Almagro
51%

Winning margin

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+
23%
Almagro wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals
72%
CA Estudiantes 2+ goals
36%
CA Estudiantes 3+ goals
14%
Almagro 1+ goals
52%
Almagro 2+ goals
17%
Almagro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)
69%
Almagro (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Estudiantes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.72 · 120 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Estudiantes attack 1.25 + Almagro defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Almagro attack 0.76 + CA Estudiantes defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CA Estudiantes scores more
49%
level
29%
Almagro scores more
22%

CA Estudiantes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CA Estudiantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: CA Estudiantes 1–1 Almagro

CA Estudiantes and Almagro drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Caseros in Caseros, Provincia de Buenos Aires.