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CA Bizertin vs Stade Tunisien — League #202 2026

CA Bizertin
CA Bizertin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
A. Seydi 3' (pen)
K. Ayari 81'
2/11/2025League #202League #202 · Round 19Stade du 15 Octobre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CA Bizertin45%
×Draw29%
Stade Tunisien26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Bizertin
1.23
Stade Tunisien
0.86

CA Bizertin creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 63 away

creates per match

CA Bizertin
1.49
Stade Tunisien
0.83

allows per match

CA Bizertin
0.89
Stade Tunisien
0.98

finishing

CA Bizertin+0.00on par
Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Bizertin ↓

Stade Tunisien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CA Bizertin or draw
74%
CA Bizertin or Stade Tunisien
71%
Draw or Stade Tunisien
55%

Winning margin

CA Bizertin wins by 2+
20%
Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CA Bizertin 1+ goals
71%
CA Bizertin 2+ goals
35%
CA Bizertin 3+ goals
13%
Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
58%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
21%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CA Bizertin (draw refunded)
63%
Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Bizertin at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Bizertin attack 1.49 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.23

Stade Tunisien attack 0.83 + CA Bizertin defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CA Bizertin scores more
45%
level
29%
Stade Tunisien scores more
26%

CA Bizertin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CA Bizertin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
K. Agbozo
3'
A. SeydiPenalty
26'
M. Diop
29'
M. Allela
49'
M. Smaali
63'
A. Guesmi
81'
K. Ayari
CA
Stade
N. Oumaya
Manager: N. Oumaya
M. Kanzari
Manager: M. Kanzari

League #202: CA Bizertin 1–1 Stade Tunisien

CA Bizertin and Stade Tunisien drew 1-1 in League #202 on February 11, 2025.

Goals: A. Seydi (3' pen), K. Ayari (81').

The match was played at Stade du 15 Octobre in Banzart.