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CA Bizertin vs Stade Tunisien — Cup 2019

CA Bizertin
CA Bizertinadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
K. Balbouz 84'
Y. Kchok 54', 3'
6/2/2022CupCup · Round of 32Stade du 15 Octobre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

CA Bizertin55%
×Draw23%
Stade Tunisien22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Bizertin
1.78
Stade Tunisien
1.04

CA Bizertin creates 71% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

CA Bizertin
2.25
Stade Tunisien
2.08

allows per match

CA Bizertin
0.00
Stade Tunisien
1.31

finishing

CA Bizertin+0.00on par
Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Bizertin ↓

Stade Tunisien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CA Bizertin or draw
78%
CA Bizertin or Stade Tunisien
77%
Draw or Stade Tunisien
45%

Winning margin

CA Bizertin wins by 2+
31%
Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CA Bizertin 1+ goals
83%
CA Bizertin 2+ goals
53%
CA Bizertin 3+ goals
26%
Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
65%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
28%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CA Bizertin (draw refunded)
71%
Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Bizertin at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Bizertin attack 2.25 + Stade Tunisien defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.78

Stade Tunisien attack 2.08 + CA Bizertin defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

CA Bizertin scores more
55%
level
23%
Stade Tunisien scores more
22%

CA Bizertin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CA Bizertin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Y. Kchok
54'
Y. Kchok
66'
A. Dridi
81'
S. B. Moussa
84'
K. Balbouz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CA Bizertin vs Stade Tunisien

CA Bizertin beat Stade Tunisien 3-0 in Cup on June 2, 2022.

Goals: Y. Kchok (3', 54'), K. Balbouz (84').

The match was played at Stade du 15 Octobre in Banzart.