CA Bizertin 0–0 Sporting Ben Arous: Result & Stats

CA Bizertin

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Ben Arous

6/21/2024

Cup · Quarter-finalsStade du 15 Octobre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CA Bizertin69%

×Draw20%

Sporting Ben Arous12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA BizertinExpected goals in this matchSporting Ben Arous

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.67

CA Bizertin

2.00

Sporting Ben Arous

0.67

CA Bizertin creates 199% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

1.33

0.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

CA Bizertin

2.67

Sporting Ben Arous

1.33

allows per match

CA Bizertin

0.00

Sporting Ben Arous

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Bizertin+0.00on par

Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Bizertin ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CA Bizertin or draw

88%

CA Bizertin or Sporting Ben Arous

80%

Draw or Sporting Ben Arous

31%

Winning margin

CA Bizertin wins by 2+

43%

Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+

Team goals

CA Bizertin 1+ goals

86%

CA Bizertin 2+ goals

59%

CA Bizertin 3+ goals

32%

Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals

49%

Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals

15%

Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CA Bizertin (draw refunded)

86%

Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CA Bizertin at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CA Bizertin attack 2.67 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sporting Ben Arous attack 1.33 + CA Bizertin defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

CA Bizertin scores more

69%

level

20%

Sporting Ben Arous scores more

12%

CA Bizertin at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "CA Bizertin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff