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CA Bizertin vs ES Zarzis — League #202 2026

CA Bizertin
CA Bizertin
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
K. Balbouz 90+3' (pen)
Y. Fellahi 72'
Z. Aloui 49'
Ahmed Amri 40'
Y. Rached 23'
2/26/2025League #202League #202 · Round 22Stade du 15 Octobre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

CA Bizertin48%
×Draw29%
ES Zarzis23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Bizertin
1.31
ES Zarzis
0.81

CA Bizertin creates 62% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 58 away

creates per match

CA Bizertin
1.34
ES Zarzis
0.84

allows per match

CA Bizertin
0.79
ES Zarzis
1.29

finishing

CA Bizertin+0.00on par
ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Bizertin ↓

ES Zarzis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CA Bizertin or draw
77%
CA Bizertin or ES Zarzis
71%
Draw or ES Zarzis
52%

Winning margin

CA Bizertin wins by 2+
23%
ES Zarzis wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CA Bizertin 1+ goals
73%
CA Bizertin 2+ goals
38%
CA Bizertin 3+ goals
14%
ES Zarzis 1+ goals
56%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
19%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CA Bizertin (draw refunded)
68%
ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Bizertin at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.79 · 56 matches

ES Zarzis away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Bizertin attack 1.34 + ES Zarzis defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

ES Zarzis attack 0.84 + CA Bizertin defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CA Bizertin scores more
48%
level
29%
ES Zarzis scores more
23%

CA Bizertin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CA Bizertin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Y. Rached
40'
Ahmed Amri
45+2'
A. Kante
49'
Z. Aloui
72'
Y. Fellahi
73'
Y. Fellahi
78'
F. Bougatfa
82'
H. H. Romdhane
84'
90+3'
K. BalbouzPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #202: CA Bizertin 4–1 ES Zarzis

CA Bizertin beat ES Zarzis 4-1 in League #202 on February 26, 2025.

Goals: Y. Rached (23'), Ahmed Amri (40'), Z. Aloui (49'), Y. Fellahi (72'), K. Balbouz (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Stade du 15 Octobre in Banzart.