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CA Bizertin vs EGS Gafsa — Cup 2019

CA Bizertin
CA Bizertinadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
2/19/2023CupCup · Round of 16Stade du 15 Octobre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CA Bizertin76%
×Draw16%
EGS Gafsa8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Bizertin
2.27
EGS Gafsa
0.56

CA Bizertin creates 305% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

CA Bizertin
2.67
EGS Gafsa
1.13

allows per match

CA Bizertin
0.00
EGS Gafsa
1.88

finishing

CA Bizertin+0.00on par
EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Bizertin ↓

EGS Gafsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CA Bizertin or draw
92%
CA Bizertin or EGS Gafsa
84%
Draw or EGS Gafsa
24%

Winning margin

CA Bizertin wins by 2+
52%
EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

CA Bizertin 1+ goals
90%
CA Bizertin 2+ goals
66%
CA Bizertin 3+ goals
39%
EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
43%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
11%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CA Bizertin (draw refunded)
91%
EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Bizertin at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Bizertin attack 2.67 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.27

EGS Gafsa attack 1.13 + CA Bizertin defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

CA Bizertin scores more
76%
level
16%
EGS Gafsa scores more
8%

CA Bizertin at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "CA Bizertin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: CA Bizertin 2–0 EGS Gafsa

CA Bizertin beat EGS Gafsa 2-0 in Cup on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du 15 Octobre in Banzart.