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CA Bastia vs Metz — Ligue 2 2010

CA Bastia
CA Bastia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Metz
Metz
Y. N'Gbakoto 56'
K. N'Sor 50'
11/22/2013Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade Armand Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CA Bastia25%
×Draw27%
Metz48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Bastia
0.91
Metz
1.38

Metz creates 52% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 126 away

creates per match

CA Bastia
0.79
Metz
1.23

allows per match

CA Bastia
1.53
Metz
1.02

finishing

CA Bastia+0.00on par
Metz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Bastia ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CA Bastia or draw
52%
CA Bastia or Metz
73%
Draw or Metz
75%

Winning margin

CA Bastia wins by 2+
8%
Metz wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

CA Bastia 1+ goals
60%
CA Bastia 2+ goals
23%
CA Bastia 3+ goals
6%
Metz 1+ goals
75%
Metz 2+ goals
40%
Metz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

CA Bastia (draw refunded)
34%
Metz (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Bastia at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Metz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Bastia attack 0.79 + Metz defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Metz attack 1.23 + CA Bastia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CA Bastia scores more
25%
level
27%
Metz scores more
48%

Metz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
K. N'Sor
56'
Y. N'Gbakoto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CA Bastia 0 – 2 Metz

Metz beat CA Bastia 2-0 in Ligue 2 on November 22, 2013.

Goals: K. N'Sor (50'), Y. N'Gbakoto (56').

The match was played at Stade Armand Césari in Furiani.