CA Bastia 1–1 Laval: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

CA Bastia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Laval

R. Pastorelli 65'

S. Renouard 42'

9/27/2013

Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade Armand Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CA Bastia32%

×Draw29%

Laval39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA BastiaExpected goals in this matchLaval

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.17

CA Bastia

1.04

Laval

1.17

Laval creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 206 away

0.79

creates per match

0.80

1.53

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

CA Bastia

0.79

Laval

0.80

allows per match

CA Bastia

1.53

Laval

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Bastia+0.00on par

Laval+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Bastia ↓

Laval →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CA Bastia or draw

61%

CA Bastia or Laval

71%

Draw or Laval

68%

Winning margin

CA Bastia wins by 2+

12%

Laval wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

CA Bastia 1+ goals

65%

CA Bastia 2+ goals

28%

CA Bastia 3+ goals

9%

Laval 1+ goals

69%

Laval 2+ goals

33%

Laval 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CA Bastia (draw refunded)

45%

Laval (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Bastia at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Laval away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.30 · 206 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Bastia attack 0.79 + Laval defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Laval attack 0.80 + CA Bastia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CA Bastia scores more

32%

level

29%

Laval scores more

39%

Laval at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Robic← A. Baby

42'

S. Renouard

46'

J. Mandrichi← A. Assana

46'

R. Pastorelli← J. Grimaldi

59'

C. Bekamenga← J. Toudic

65'

R. Pastorelli

75'

M. Diallo← S. Renouard

82'

J. Lamberti← R. Arnoux

CA

Laval

30

21

4

2

12

25

⚽

▼

20

18

6

8

▼

Baby

29

▼

1

23

15

25

4

10

▼

Grimaldi

6

Marty

19

N'Diaye

7

▼

Arnoux

24

▼

Assana

9

Cropanese

46'▲J. Mandrichi←▼A. Assana

46'▲R. Pastorelli←▼J. Grimaldi

82'▲J. Lamberti←▼R. Arnoux

CA Bastia substitutes

14Mandrichi18Pastorelli5Lamberti8Oswald16Philippon

22'▲A. Robic←▼A. Baby

59'▲C. Bekamenga←▼J. Toudic

75'▲M. Diallo←▼S. Renouard

Laval substitutes

23Robic9Bekamenga11Diallo1Hautbois7Belaud